State Bank of India (SBI), India's largest lender, will announce its July–September quarter (Q2) results for 2026-27 on Tuesday, 3 November. According to Livemint, brokerages expect double-digit growth in net interest income (NII), the gap between interest a bank earns and interest it pays, helped by strong loan growth.
For a small investor, headline profit is only part of the story. Margins and bad loans matter as much. This article explains what brokerages expect and what to read first. It was prepared before the results, so it has no actual SBI numbers.
What is happening on 3 November
SBI is one of many companies reporting on the same day. According to Economic Times, State Bank of India, National Stock Exchange of India (NSE), Bajaj Finserv, Lupin and Multi Commodity Exchange of India are among them.
Another Livemint report says the Sensex closed at 75,692.78, up 1,233.25 points or 1.66%, its best close since 7 September. The Nifty 50 closed at 23,440.80, up 387.70 points or 1.68%.
According to Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, the Nifty could move towards its 100-day moving average near 23,700. He sees support at 23,150–23,100 and resistance at 23,500 and 23,700.
What brokerages expect
Livemint's preview quotes two brokerages, Kotak Institutional Equities and Axis Direct. The table puts their estimates side by side.
| Item | Kotak Institutional Equities | Axis Direct |
|---|---|---|
| Operating profit | About 5% growth year on year | Not stated |
| NII | Up 13% year on year | Not stated |
| Loan growth | 18% | Advances up 17-18% year on year |
| Margins (NIM) | Flat compared with previous quarter | Stable compared with previous quarter |
| Bad loan slippages | Around 1.1% of loans | Expected to stay under control |
| Other income | Slower fee growth; gain from NSE stake sale | Gains from SBI Funds Management and NSE stake sales |
Both brokerages expect strong loan growth and steady margins. Kotak gives more numbers on profit and bad loans. All these figures are estimates, not results.
Kotak expects operating profit to grow only about 5%. The reason, it says, is that the base quarter included gains from selling SBI's stake in Yes Bank. Last year's number was lifted by that gain, so this year's growth looks smaller. Operating profit is what a bank earns before setting aside money for bad loans.
Margins and FCNR(B) money
Net interest margin (NIM) is the gap between what a bank earns on loans and what it pays on deposits. Kotak calls the path of NIMs the key thing to watch this quarter.
FCNR(B) deposits are foreign currency deposits that Non-Resident Indians keep in Indian banks. Axis Direct expects them to support deposit growth. Kotak expects a negligible effect on margins this quarter.
Seema Srivastava of SMC Global Securities sees more risk. She said incremental FCNR(B) deposits and a shifting funding mix pose pressure on NIMs, and weak treasury and forex income could limit sequential profit growth. Livemint's preview, however, says margins are likely to stay stable. The actual results will settle this.
Bad loans and other income
Slippages are loans that turn bad during the quarter. Kotak expects them around 1.1% of loans, which it calls a gradual normalisation. It sees no fresh asset quality worries, though recoveries and upgrades may be lower. Axis Direct also expects slippages to stay under control, with credit costs inching up marginally.
Other income may get support from stake sales. Axis Direct points to gains from SBI Funds Management and NSE stake sales. Kotak also factors in the NSE gain but expects slower fee income. A sale gain does not repeat every quarter, so readers should separate it from regular earnings.
Axis Direct also lists management comments on the Expected Credit Loss (ECL) transition as a key point. It gave no figure for the impact, so we cannot say how large it will be.
What analysts said about the share
Srivastava gave SBI a Hold rating ahead of results. She cited broad-based credit growth across retail, agriculture, MSME and corporate segments, stable asset quality and well-controlled credit costs. She said new investors can wait for the official results and management comments on slippages and margins.
Mahesh M Ojha of Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities is more upbeat. He said SBI shows positive momentum and may see further upside in the near term. For traders he gave a stop-loss of ₹958 and upside targets of ₹1,005, ₹1,020 and ₹1,035+. These are his views, not ours, and targets can fail.
Risks to keep in mind
- Estimates can miss. Brokerage figures are forecasts, and real results may differ.
- Gains from stake sales can make profit growth hard to compare with last year.
- Margins may come under pressure, as Srivastava warned.
- Analysts disagree, with one at Hold and another seeing upside.
- Markets can turn. Bhuva sees the Nifty facing resistance at 23,500.
What to watch next
- NIM and management comments on margin recovery
- Slippages compared with the 1.1% estimate
- Loan growth compared with the 17-18% estimate
- How much other income came from stake-sale gains
- Comments on the ECL transition
For wider profit estimates, read our SBI Q2 preview. To see how another big bank is expected to handle FCNR(B) money, read our Kotak Mahindra Bank Q2 preview. More stories are in Results and Markets. Check final numbers in SBI's filing on the BSE or NSE website.
Words explained
- Net interest income (NII): interest a bank earns on loans minus interest it pays on deposits.
- Net interest margin (NIM): the gap between the rate a bank earns on loans and its cost of deposits. If it earns 8% and pays 5%, the gap is 3%.
- FCNR(B): Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) deposit, where Non-Resident Indians keep money in a foreign currency with an Indian bank.
- Slippages: loans that turn bad during a quarter.
- Expected Credit Loss (ECL): a way of setting aside money for loans based on losses expected in future, not only losses that have already happened.
- Operating profit: profit before money is set aside for bad loans and before tax.
- 100-day moving average: the average closing price of the last 100 days, used to judge a trend.
- Stop-loss: a price at which a trader plans to exit to limit losses.
- Resistance: a price level where an index has often struggled to rise further.
Sources: Livemint, Economic Times.
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