Brent crude oil traded around $103 a barrel on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, according to Economic Times. Only last week, it was near $118, The Hindu reported. Prices fell as the US and Iran looked at fresh peace proposals.
This matters because India buys most of its crude oil from other countries. Cheaper oil can ease pressure on prices, the rupee and fuel companies. But prices have swung sharply, and the war has not ended.
What happened this week
On Monday, 2 November, Brent fell more than 7% to $104.80 a barrel, according to Livemint. Talks between Iranian and Qatari officials had raised hopes of a peace deal.
On Tuesday, prices first jumped. A Wall Street Journal report said the US had attacked Iran's Qeshm Island. Brent touched a day's high of $106.90 and then slipped to $102.76, Livemint said. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported at least four attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz in three days.
On Wednesday, prices started rising again after two days of falls, said NDTV Profit, which put Brent near $104. Qatar's Foreign Ministry said both sides were studying new proposals. But Iran's national security chief said Washington's reply was still not satisfactory.
The numbers
| Oil price point | Price per barrel | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Brent, last week of October | Around $115 | Livemint |
| Brent, last week (over six-month high) | Near $118 | The Hindu |
| Indian crude basket, October average | $120 | Livemint |
| Indian crude basket, 2 November | $107 | Livemint |
| Brent, Monday 2 November | $104.80 | Livemint |
| Brent, Wednesday 4 November | Around $103 / near $104 | Economic Times / NDTV Profit |
The table shows oil coming down from its late-October highs, though it is still above $100.
The sources give slightly different readings for the same period. For last week, Livemint says about $115 and The Hindu says near $118. For Wednesday, Economic Times says about $103 and NDTV Profit says near $104. We could not confirm which reading is right.
Why it matters to a common investor
Livemint and The Hindu say India imports about 90% of its crude oil. In a Supreme Court plea, Oil India put the figure at 80-85%, according to CNBC-TV18. We could not confirm the exact share. Readers can check official government data.
Either way, every price move changes the country's bill. Livemint says that a $1 rise per barrel adds ₹18,000 crore to the annual import bill if it lasts a full year. So a $5 move would mean about ₹90,000 crore (our calculation). In September, India's oil import bill was nearly $14.3 billion, 33% more than a year earlier, The Hindu reported.
Oil also reaches the kitchen. Gaurav Moda of EY India told Economic Times that costly crude could add up to 1 percentage point to inflation. Diesel moves trucks, so dearer diesel pushes up the price of goods. Retail inflation was 5.54% in September, a 23-month high, and the RBI raised the repo rate by 25 basis points, Livemint said.
The rupee feels it too. On Tuesday it closed at 94.71 to the dollar, up 13 paise, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. Traders said the rebound in oil held back bigger gains. Easing oil prices also helped the Nifty rise for four days to close at 23,810.85, Economic Times said. Read more on stock market trends and on how cheaper fuel lifted IndiGo shares this week.
What it means for oil companies
Indian refiners had a record refining quarter in July-September, Economic Times reported. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) earned a gross refining margin of $36.67 a barrel, or about $18.52 after the special additional excise duty (SAED). BPCL earned $32.53, about $14 after the duty. HPCL earned $32.15 before the duty. Reliance's oil-to-chemicals business also posted record numbers, as covered in our story on the jump in Reliance shares.
Falling oil is not good news for everyone. IOC's profit more than doubled to ₹21,630 crore. But the company warned that it could face inventory losses in the coming quarters if crude falls as the Middle East calms down, The Hindu reported.
Cooking gas is another pressure point. The three state-run companies are selling LPG cylinders below cost, and they expect this loss to grow.
| Company | October loss per cylinder | November loss per cylinder (expected) |
|---|---|---|
| Indian Oil Corporation | ₹229 | ₹309 |
| Bharat Petroleum | ₹245 | ₹328 |
| Hindustan Petroleum | ₹245 | ₹327 |
The table shows company figures shared with analysts, as reported by The Hindu. IOC expects the loss to reach ₹370 per cylinder in December.
What analysts said
Forecasts vary widely. Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $105 in December and stay high next year, Livemint reported. Citi expects oil to move closer to $70 a barrel in 2027, CNBC-TV18 said. Citi's view depends on the West Asia conflict ending by late 2026 or early 2027.
The US midterm election is the next big event. Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Neo told Livemint that a weaker Trump could mean softer oil and a further market rally. A stronger Trump could keep the West Asia worry alive. Emkay Research, quoted by Economic Times, expects the Iran conflict to likely flare up again after the midterms. It said this would keep weighing on India's markets and currency.
Risks to keep in mind
- The peace talks have produced no deal yet, and Iran says the US reply is not good enough.
- Ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz can push prices up again at short notice.
- Analyst forecasts range from $70 to $105, and any of them can turn out wrong.
- Oil companies face mixed effects. Lower crude cuts their costs but can also cause inventory losses.
What to watch next
- US midterm election results and what they mean for Iran policy.
- Russia-Ukraine-US peace talks in Abu Dhabi on 10-11 November, according to CNBC-TV18.
- Government data on October oil imports, due next month, The Hindu said.
Words explained
- Brent crude: A type of crude oil whose price is used as a world benchmark. Many oil deals are priced against it.
- Indian crude basket: The average price of the different crude oils that Indian refiners buy.
- Gross refining margin (GRM): What a refiner earns on each barrel after paying for the crude. If fuels from a barrel sell for $120 and the crude cost $100, the GRM is $20.
- Special additional excise duty (SAED): An extra tax on fuel that refiners send abroad. It cuts what they keep.
- Inventory loss: A loss that happens when a company buys oil at a high price and the market price falls before it sells the fuel.
- Repo rate: The rate at which the RBI lends money to banks. When it rises, loans usually get costlier.
- Basis points: One basis point is 0.01 percentage point, so 25 basis points means 0.25 percentage point.
- Percentage point: The simple gap between two percentages. Inflation going from 5% to 6% is a rise of 1 percentage point.
Sources: Economic Times, Livemint, The Hindu, The Hindu BusinessLine, NDTV Profit, CNBC-TV18.
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